America's most accurate election guru gives final midterm prediction
A history professor who has accurately predicted the outcome of 9 of the last 11 presidential races has issued his final assessment of the 2026 midterms.
TL;DR
- Historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted 9 of the last 11 presidential elections, forecasts a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms.
- Lichtman's prediction is supported by President Trump's low approval ratings, which historically lead to significant losses for the incumbent's party.
- Democrats are leading in generic congressional ballots by seven to 11 points, with higher voter enthusiasm and strong early voting trends favoring them.
- Lichtman predicts Democrats have a 67% chance of capturing the Senate, with a likely outcome of a 51-49 majority.
- He identifies 'really bad' Republican candidates and substantial outside spending, particularly from billionaires like Elon Musk, as contributing factors to GOP struggles.
- Potential Democratic Senate gains are predicted in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, with Alaska also a possibility.
- Lichtman compares the current political environment to 1966, a year of heavy Democratic losses under Lyndon Johnson.